Talk:Carefree Melody/@comment-38252036-20190121180758

Your actual odds of getting the charm to go off on any given hit are 0%, 10%, 18%, 21.6%, 25.5%, 17.64%, 6.048%, and then 1.3608%, with a remaining 0.1512% chance to make it past the 8th hit, 90% of which belongs to the 9th hit and so on. In other words, if you're trying to hit yourself 8 times in a row so that you can enter a boss fight with the charm already maxed, you're going to be walking into spikes for quite a while, as you only have a 1.512% chance to make it past the 7th hit and into the 90% range.

It's actually a pretty good charm though, barring the fact that accessing it locks you out of a bunch of stuff. If you can get it to go off twice against a boss which deals two damage per attack, that's equivalent to four extra masks, which with a three notch cost is a better deal than fragile heart's two for two. And those are masks which you don't have to worry about healing; get back to full health, and you'll get those activations again automatically.

(note that the "zero hits taken" odds are your odds for activation on the first hit, "1 hit taken" for the second, "N hits taken" for the N+1th, etc)

Starting from zero, the charm's effect is equivalent to having a 22.3793751678453% (2500/11171) to negate damage. Though again, that's barring your ability to game the charm a little in preparation for single fights.